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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  April 2, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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like australian dollar. those will be much more interesting trades against the developed economy. that does it for us. back open now to fast money halftime report. major averages at the highs of the day now on this the first trading day. positive u.s. data and surprising data out of china. we'll talk about that in a bit. look at major averages here. dow industrials good for 61. s&p and nasdaq in positive territory. gold and oil always on our 90s. gold is higher by three-quarters of 1%. crude oil as well into the green today. let's get to the stop stories we're following on the halftime show. apples prices. apple fever continuing to grip the street. decoding china data. which numbers should you believe and what should you trade?
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we we will break down confusing data and we're consulting the stock traders almanac in running through the biggest risks to watch out for in the second quarter. welcome to the "fast money" halftime report. lots to trade. let's start doing it with apple holding well above 600 bucks. analysts in a race to ratchet up price target. what's the next catalyst for this stock? >> earnings. we need to know how many ipads they are exactly selling. last week we had analysts suggesting they are not selling as much as they are. apple in price action today is fully indicative of the overall market itself. relatively benign. pmis good out of europe. china a surprise to the upside. i think you use apple as a proxy for markets here. no reason to sell out of it. you wait for the earnings. >> what's your take? >> i think when you get an opportunity like friday presented, end of the quarter, people were dumping out of apple because of that report about fox con and what they were doing with workers and factories in
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china. that just seemed kind of silly to me as far as that being a catalyst to sell this stock. the fact that the ipads are running hot also a little bit of a reach as far as a reason to sell the stock. this is a very significant pop today. i can't wait to listen to analysts talk about 1001 price target. >> talk about apple and market in general. surprising data comes out today. market at the highs of the day as we come on the air start of the second quarter. >> i think joey t. hit the nail on the head. apple as a proxy for the market. what you see with apple right now people say do i jump in and buy this name here? it's run up over $600 a share. however, it is still cheap relative to the rest of the market. you can say the same thing for the overall market. we had great q-1. if earnings come in and guidance is in line as i expect it to be, you can't talk hard landing in china anymore. you have a setup for a strong second quarter as well. >> size it up for us then.
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>> i'm looking at this market overall and to me it feels a lot more like 1998 than 2007 when things were going to be heading back down. i'm watching long with everyone else for the down side to this market. i'm not sitting here ringing my hands over things. i think this market continues to go higher until it has a reason not to and we don't have that yet. >> let's get to our top story. our next guest isn't bothering with triple digits on apple. brian white, now at a new firm called topeka capital markets. what's with price is right target. that's why we play the music. welcome to the show. i think everybody is probably thinking today this smacks of a guy who left and goes to a new firm that perhaps most people haven't heard of before. you are trying to make a splash not only for yourself and perhaps for the firm itself. what's with 1, 001? >> i tell you what, back in
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octob october, we talked about apple being a great buy at $400. we had a 666 price target. here just a few months later, the stock recently hit $621. today what we're saying is look performance near term has been much, much better than even we would have thought. and the valuation is still very, very modest. the company has dipped into its cash balance. it's going to attract a new group of investors. the ipad is off to a huge start in the first three days 3 million ipads in the first three days. just remember they sold 4 million iphone 4s. >> how much new firm premium is in your price target today? >> we used 17 times. we use 17 times our 2013 number. we added about $104 per share in cash. this is a very, very reasonable
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multiple. keep in mind apple has grown 86% a year over the past seven years. they grew 83% last year. we're looking for 61% growth this year. i want to give it a multiple that it deserves. >> there was a firm called wedge partners last week. maybe a small boutique firm which came out and raised questions about ipad sales that maybe they weren't looking as robust as some people had expected. maybe the lines weren't as long. what's your rebuttal to that? how are you so sure this is a product that will continue at the same accelerated rate as the past? >> you have to understand more people are ordering online. we started ordering online with 4s. previously we never ordered online. ipad we ordered online. that's how people are getting ipads and iphones online. you won't see the hustle and bustle in the stores that you
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used to. we have gone through and looked at the rollout plan they have. we did this for the 4s well. 11.6 million ipads in the march quarter. we feel comfortable with that. >> guys want to get involved on the desk. joe? >> i think the street is 10 million ipads for the quarter. do you see sequential growth through the the year on the ipad and do we shift from ipad story and it becomes about the iphone 5 rather? >> i think that we have 25% decline in the march quarter on the ipad. we have got 25% growth in the june quarter and 15% growth in the september quarter. i think those are very modest numbers. you're right. the big hit this year is going to be the iphone 5. because it's going to have a bigger display and it's going to have a different form factor potentially a different material and most importantly it's going to be 4g. apple is finally tapping into the 4g with the new ipad that
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they came out with. a massive upgrade cycle in the fall. >> i see in your note you don't have anything about the new computers, touch screen computers that apple is rolling out this summer. can you touch on that a little bit? that's higher margins there in the big home box computers. >> i think what they're trying to do, all of the mac products are trying to take on more of the look and feel of the ipad. they did it with application store. they're going to do it with the touch screen phenomenon. we can already at the end of the day do this with our pc at home. i think it's a feature they needed to add. they're going to do it. it will make people feel like they are playing with iphone or ipad. >> i agree with you that it's the iphone 5. i think the ipads are selling extremely well. apple has accounted so far in the first quarter for 14.7% of
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the s&p 500 gain by itself. with this said, i think this iphone 5 really is a game changer. it will be so significantly different if what i'm hearing and what you're hearing is correct. this is game changer in that space. i think the fact that you have such a buzz about that 4g version of it, i think that's really why people like you are willing to put a target out there and think different. >> one thing i will say, i think we will look back in three to five years and laugh that we're making such a big deal about a trillion dollar market cap. apple is gobbling up so many different industries. i think ultimately it's going to go well beyond a trillion dollars. we don't know. we put in our note aspirational goal. it won't be easy. to hit a trillion in revenue over the next decade. it's only 23% top line growth.
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>> your math came out to 1,000. you threw on that dollar to make it sound extra special. >> we wanted to be slightly over a thousand to get a message across. >> thanks. brian white today. >> i just think the biggest thing that nobody talks about with apple when looking at what a bullish story is, they have no competition. there's no competition for them in the space and i think really the problem for rim has been all about apple. how you trade apple, john pointed it out on dips you continue to buy it. second derivative, sirius logic has had a correction. that's now basing and name you can own as it gets above 24 bucks. >> maybe apple's biggest competitor is apple itself. maybe the only thing that can derail this company is any kind of misstep. if numbers don't perform to where the street expects. if a new product fails to live up to elevated expectations which are only going to continue to grow. >> maybe.
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i think apple is fphenomenal story. one of the guys said he would be returning his ipad and actually buying a kindle fire because he didn't need the extra firepower that the new ipad was going to give him. he could get the same thing out of kindle fire. i think you'll start to see more buzz about stuff like that too. i'm not saying there's anything wrong with apple. it's not the end all and be all. there is a little competition. >> let's move to our next trade. groupon. the company forced to revise fourth quarter results after failing to set aside enough money for customer refunds. our next guest says the minor restatement is a major problem and is downgrading the stock to a sell. joining us on the fast line is senior analyst. jordan, welcome to the show. >> thank you. happy to be here. >> why the downgrade to extreme like a sell. >> sell isn't extreme. one of the three ratings i have
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access to. >> i understand. you know where i'm going on this. >> i do. there are very few since stances where a company's growing pains are communicated to investors in a friday night accounting revision. this is one. and the accounting revision is not just below the line item that doesn't matter, they are seeing higher refunds being requested by consumers who are unhappy for whatever reason with their groupon experiences. they are telling you that as they get into new, more complex offerings and bigger ticket items that the business model works a little differently perhaps not as well. i just question whether it means that the addressable market is as large as they say it is or whether it makes sense for groupon and restaurants and massages and some other categories but perhaps not lasix surgery. >> does it make you question everything going forward about this company? this i believe was the first
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earnings report as a public company, correct? >> yes. >> i guess my point is are you extracting more pain perhaps that it is their first earnings report and questions going into it about the "adult supervision in the room" over groupon and what the business model is and that's where we find ourselves today. >> i try to be fair in my analysis. when i look at this, i say this is a business model where they are making it up or proceeding along a plan as we're following them as a public company when most companies that are less than four years old wouldn't be public yet. there are likely to be more and more bumps along this line. i project they will grow over a long period of time. i just am concerned that if the addressable market isn't as big as they said it was, that we'll find that out in in unglamorous
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fashion over the course of the next few quarters and i think there will be a chance to see shares at 13 or even lower than that. >> jordan, i agree with you on the price target you have and rating on the company. they are growing. isn't it ultimately a question of management and does management need to be changed? last summer you had ceo making comments and they had to go back and revise the ipo following. it's a management issue. >> at some level it has to be. someone made a decision to go forward with a public offering. my firm was not involved in the public offering for what it is worth. one would think they would have had all of these issues ironed out. it's unfortunate they haven't. some of them such as the forecast for lower tax rate than they reported last quarter and that caused the earnings miss is one i was able to just say, you know what? that's unfortunate but it's something that doesn't matter to the long-term. this one, however, because it has to do with consumer dissatisfaction even if it's a
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marginal change in consumer dissatisfaction with higher ticket items, it's something that bothers me and it could be a situation where lower quality providers are the ones that exist on groupon. that might actually create more complaints and that worry to me is that you could be in a situation where the good providers move on and there's merchant exhaustion. i'm not sure we have enough information to get to that conclusion now. i've seen things head down that path on the internet before. >> understood. thanks so much. trading? >> i agree. groupon ipo coming out raising size of ipo seemed like a mess getting the whole thing started and now i just don't know. the first quarter out, i'm going to reiterate what guys were saying. first quarter out to have this kind of mess up, i would hate to see what next quarter will look like. i agree with sell rating. i think it goes lower. >> what's on your radar?
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>> carmax. it has turned to the upside. april 34 calls. stocks trading at 3480 level or thereabo thereabouts. it's well above open interest. volumes are not terribly heavy but it's strong and they are pushing the stock to the upside. >> all right. after the best first quarter for stocks since '98 as we head to break, let's look at how the second quarter has begun. highs of the day. s&p 500 good for almost 12 points. almost 1% today. look at the xlf. banks are strong. strong last quarter as well. best performing sector with banks for first quarter. next on the halftime report, conflicting data out of china. which should you believe? john rutledge gets to the bottom of the great china debate and how to trade it when we come back.
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>> we saw the opportunity this morning and pounced on it. >> that was our own mike murphy
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making a bullish call on mining equipment manufacturer joy global. how much of that do you think was because of worries we've seen in china develop over the last couple of weeks? >> i think just about all of it was china news coming out. i think that china news, pmi data from this weekend, gave the stock a nice boost this morning. we're still in the joy name. still for the same exact reasons. i think everybody wants to find the hard landing in china. i don't think it's out there. you look at numbers from china. i think they're good. joy is great way to play the chinese market and the recovery in coal. we're about to break even. i think the stock goes higher. >> i love the tremendous pass you give me on this. mike is long at 7530. i'm long joy global well above 80 bucks and been talk about it for many months now. i think when you look at the
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acquisition they make, then you look at joy global and look for m & a pickup in the second quarter, maybe the third quarter. mining space was very active in the first quarter. to me it's a prime acquisition target and name you hold here. >> it's an interesting conversation to segue into our next guest. john rutledge is joining us now. really a skilled eye on what's happening in china. certainly a skilled investor with rutledge capital. mr. rutledge, welcome to the program. i know you just -- it's great to have you back by the way. i know you heard the discussion we were having on joy global. how do we recognize these two separate numbers out of china? both official numbers and hsbc? >> start with the bottom line. there's no hard landing this china. there won't be one. there's an imaginary one that happens every three months when western investors misinterpret data from china. and then numbers come out to make it look not so bad like
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over the weekend. there were two pmi indexes. smaller companies are more sensitive to exports. exports are very weak because of european decline. and there's also of course a weak housing market. china is slowing to 8.5, not to 5 to 6 where people should worry. >> were you using the last 7 to 10 trading days to load up on stocks that you like that have exposure to china whether it be mi miners, i know you like caterpillar. you said you were buying on any dips you saw in any of those names. what do you do today? >> you know, i feel i'm like a snail mugged by a gang of turtles. you guys trade so quickly relative to me. i like the names that are foreign ways to play china's growth like the mining
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companies. bhp, freeport, very good ones as well. petro china is a nice way to do it. chinese resource companies as a small footnote don't pay the government for access to their resources. they get a bigger kick out of changes in commodity prices than do western companies. all of those are looking pretty good. basically if you are covering iron, orr, copper and coal, you have a good bead on the chinese economy. >> let me ask if you have an opinion on joy global. >> i don't know the stock well enough. mining equipment is a very good volatile way to play the swings in commodity prices because of course capital spending moves up and down so much with the cash flows and the cash flows of the mining companies should do very well with the firming commodity
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prices that ought to happen with firming growth. >> i'm with you. i continue to think that china is a tail wind for global markets but two indicators for you, would it be continued monetary easing on the part of the central bank and additionally you have currency appreciation. do you see consistency at both of those for 2012? >> that's a very good question. those two questions are really tied together. most western observers interpret chinese monetary policy by looking at changes in reserve requirements. when the ease reserve requirements as they've been doing lately, they think it's monetary easing. that's incorrect in china. the chinese central bank uses reserve requirements strictly as a means of sopping up speculative inflows and outflows of capital betting on rmb. when you see them lowering reserve requirements, that means speculators are no longer buying rmb and that's likely to be
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weaker rather than stronger. the way you can detect softening monetary policy in china is through administrative controls, quotas for loans, restrictions on mortgage lending and the like. all of those are easing and will ease more in the coming months. you will get support from the central bank and from the restrictions on mortgages easing that should help the declining real estate prices in china. >> doc? >> john, great to have you on the show. i respect your insight on china virtually more than anyone else. i love last week that we had you and steven roach talking about china. quick question about what came out of the apple investigation more or less last week. is that something that is going to be a little bit of a setback to not just fox con but to workers in china and those same workers of course were protesting they won't be able to get as much over time going forward. is that something we should be
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watching? >> china is a very, very poor economy where incomes are about a tenth of u.s. levels. those people are working in the factories because they're from poor villages and the main source of income back to the villages for their families. this is like america 150 years ago. not america today. the labor markets are, however, affirming in china as growth happens in a natural way. i think apple of course is very sensitive to their public image and they're going to be doing everything they can to not irritate and worry their customers in the west. the counterto that of course is that southern china is having a lot of manufacturers leave to go to other places like thailand and vietnam where labor costs are actually lower than they are. on that i think you'll see firming wages improving labor conditions in a more or less gradual way in china especially
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as the government now is pushing to grow the service industries and other rising wage industries that don't use as many resources and you don't have as much pollution attached to them and have more employment gains. they have to deliver job growth in china like our government does. >> is there one specific commodity that you can guide our traders not only on desk here but those watching today that you would favor over another because of what you see in china? >> in near term probably copper because inventories are low. medium term iron orr because there is trouble there with recent change in bhp's leadership that has people worried. i think it will firm up better. >> great to have you as always, sir. we'll talk to you again soon. john rutledge joining us today. >> if you like copper, a name you could own. tech resources. we often talk about it. get a little copper, get a little coal which is recovering as well. >> i think that china news out
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there is a strong signal for freeport. freeport has been under a ton of pressure. quality name. in this news cons for a couple weeks, you could see freeport up 10% to 20% from these levels. >> will jcpenney's new pricing strategy pay off? one of our traders will make that call. we'll be right back. how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea.
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let's check on three of the top trades we're watching halfway through today's show. mike murphy, nice gain here. >> great gain. a big multiindustrial name. it's a great read for the entire economy. as danaher moved up from 40 into high 50s now, this company is a cash machine. they generate a ton of cash. in the last ten years they've done over $20 billion in acquisitions. this is a company as they are moving you can read that end industrial users are ordering. it tells you the u.s. economy is in good shape. >> speaking nice gains, look at starbucks on the wall.
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gain of 1.3%. >> i would imagine he knows what he's doing in starbucks. hasn't seen a hard landing in china. second biggest market. what do you do here? use last week's low which is 54.62. that's your point of reference for a stop. >> jpmorgan out for different comments on two retail names. you can see reaction obviously in the stock today up nearly 3%. cutting jcpenney's 2012 same store sales. jcpenney up 1% nonetheless. >> there's been a lot of speculation about jcpenney. they have gone to pricing strategy that eliminates promotions. there was a study done last week by citigroup saying that most of the people they talk to were not aware that jcpenney had gone to this flat pricing strategy. that's not a good thing for that coupon cutter looking to go in and get those big deals. i hear a lot of antidotal talk about people getting fabulous
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bargains at kohl's and i think they will take advantage of that and in short run it will be bad news for jcpenney. >> both jcpenney and kohl's underperformed in the first quarter. s&p up 12%. jcpenney up 2%. kohl's was up a little bit better than that. neither stocks excited people of late. >> the excitement with jcpenney as we know and as herb greenberg sit cites is ron johnson. a lot was put on how fast ron johnson can put the pressure on and whether people will migrate away from coupons and perceive some value they get that 30% discount rather than just saying i'm going to be fair with you guys all the time. you don't have to worry about whether or not i'm marking it. people do worry they're marking it up and that's why kohl's is succeeding here. >> when walmart tried to go to every day low pricing strategy over in japan, it took four or five years to get that turned
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around in the consumer's mind. this is not something that happened overnight. i love ron johnson and ideas he's bringing to jcpenney, it's not a quick fix and kohl's will take advantage of it. >> i think performance of tjx you have to highlight that. you look at jcpenney and kohl's and the entire face and you're a money manager and say okay i have tjx which continues to work, that's where money wants to be. there's no reason to shift out of it. >> do you have a comment on jcpenney or kohl's? >> i do. the way we've been playing this, we've been short jcpenney for quite some time. we're also long macy's because we see a lot of value in macy's. major difference here, macy put a plan in place and they are executing on the plan. the plan is at work currently in the stores. jcpenney has a lot of plans. we don't know if they'll execute on those plans there.
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>> they have had more time to run the show than mr. johnson has had over at jcpenney. >> that's why you would think valuations would be more in line but when you have jcpenney trading up over 20 times and macy's down in 10 to 12 times, they are long space and short space at the same time. >> midday market movers that may not yet be on your radar. amazon is dropping. almost 2%. >> you know, a downgrade today. over the long run amazon is something you want to be in. we have talked about that. in short run people bet against so it's a bad move. >> express scripts popping 3%. >> we know the news about the deal able to debt done. sell the news type of event pulling back here from the highs. i would own express scripts but i wouldn't own it here. i like it down around 52. >> abercrombie & fitch. >> down 30% in the last six
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months. quality name. they addressed issues they had. we're long the name. we think it goes a lot higher. >> pop for the gdx. gold miners etf. dr. jay, nice gain today of a couple percentage points. >> james grant was on with maria bartiromo last week talked about the metals and how he thinks they are under valued and in particular the miners. i agree. i went for gdxj after comments last week. that's the junior miners. these are seniors. juniors get more of a boost over time. that's why i am in that one instead. >> do you add to that now that you have confirming data? >> i like it. i like that they were opening down today too. and then as the quarter began and then they turned into positive territory just as crude did. i like movement here. >> pop for ashton kutcher who reportedly landed a role playing steve jobs. the icon apple co-founder in an
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upcoming film. the news was released on april fool's day. kutcher seems to be the right man for the job. check that out. next on halftime report, is there a monster sell signal on the horizon. biggest risks to watch out for q-2 and why beauty trade is attracting so much attention today. more halftime reports up after the break. [ male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles, like in a special ops mission?
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time for the halftime poll of the day. today's question what is the biggest risk to watch out for in the second quarter? a, europe. b, china. c, oil prices. or d, earning season which can you believe is almost here? logon to cast your vote. what are the biggest risks you see? >> we have got past a couple of them with china pmi. we have the jobs report. that's a big either tail wind or headwind for the markets. we know about earnings. i think it all comes down to oil at the end. >> jobs report this friday on good friday. dr. jay? i'll tie into what joe said
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regarding consumer and exactly what kind of impact in california when we were out there this weekend. it's dang near $5 a gallon in california. 4.65 to 4.80 in chicago. that's going to be an impact going forward. it hasn't peaked yet. no matter how much we release, it won't impact gasoline prices. >> patty, biggest risks this quarter? >> i agree with guys on oil. more than that it's the earning season. we're flying blind going into the season. we haven't had a lot of downgrades or rather management pulling back on numbers. that would lead me to be more positive. if we get anything that's a major miss it will be a problem. >> i'll go with patty on this. it will be earnings. interesting to see how companies are able to deal with higher energy costs as it goes to oil and maybe some of them shifting over to natural gas and coal pulling back. i think earnings have been set up to perform very well and if
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they can come in that way and guidance is good, we'll push higher. if not, that is the sell signal. >> our next guest says the markets are on a drink of hitting a sell signal and may happen as early as today. joining us now is jeff hirsch, editor in chief of stock traders almanac. how do you reconcile that with the fact that april is the best dow jones month since 1950? >> you reconcile it easily because that's when you see the tops mostly. you see a change in momentum even though you have a great move. election year april has been about half as good with the dow up only about 1% back to 1950 and nasdaq actually going negative in election years a fraction of a percent down 1.5% on election years. >> are you looking at technicals and the fundamentals when you make a call as you are today? >> well, when we get into the season, the last month of the best six months of april we look for technical trigger and indicators that we look at are
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right on the cusp. buy side indicators is just in positive territory right about now with dow up 62 or something last i looked. the sell side we need a slightly higher gain up to 92 and change. you know, it's close. we're okay. we had a big move since our buy signal back in october and we're happy to sell on strength if we get technical trigger and market continues to rally higher as i suspect it just might. >> jeff, when you look back at historical data that you are presenting this evidence that we're at a sell point, has there ever been a year or scenario with central banks have been fixated on providing liquidity to the markets. >> it's been historic. central banking hasn't been around that long. maybe a hundred years or so. in that whole time i haven't seen as much running of the presses. i think that's part of the bullish case here for a while.
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there's plenty of risk as you were talking about before. some of the seasonal warm periods that brought a lot of economic numbers forward and that's another risk to disappointment and also the election could change people's perspective when people start focusing on the national election. >> what kind of pullback would you be expecting and then once we got it, with a would you be buying? >> well, i think we have potential of about 5% to 15%. i would look for a low in that july/october period where we season ally get it and ahead of an election. all of the major sectors that have seasonal bullish period beginning in october, we like to get in earlier. on the short side there's a few things we like also. we can get into bonds. there's a nice new etf adviser shares hedge which goes short. we've used some of the mutual funds over the years. this is a nice liquid etf that people can get into for some
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protection against the downturn. >> good to see you again, jeff. >> thanks very much. >> jeff hirsch today. avon soaring about 15% after rejecting coty's $10 billion takeover bid. avon says it does not reflect the fundamental value of avon. our next guest agrees and says the company is worth way more. connie is an analyst at bmo capital markets. welcome to the show. >> thanks. >> what makes you so sure they're worth more. you're worth what someone is willing to pay for you, aren't you? >> you are. but the valuation that was placed on avon this morning was very depressed earnings. i think if avon's fundamentals improve over the next year, the valuation would be very different. >> isn't that the whole risk here? what are prospects of avon's fundamentals improving? obviously management situation is in and of itself an issue, is it not? >> yes. back in december avon announced that it was splitting the roles of chairman and ceo and it is in
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the process now of looking for a new ceo. the fundamentals won't improve until a new ceo plus whatever management team that person brings in are in place. >> it did seem this morning on that pop that carried it well through the bid price that people were betting there would not be if not a white knight some other competing bid or sweetened bid coming from coty on this one. when you look at the universe of folks that would be out there once they get the ceo situation straightened out a little bit more, do you think that we would see a higher bid from a competitor other than coty or do you think coty pursues them at a higher level? >> i think it's soon to tell. if you look at what other companies would be a strategic fit for avon, it's not clear to me that there are too many. i think once the fundamentals
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are in place and the earnings power becomes more visible, either coty could come back with something that reflects better earnings power or maybe someone else steps in. you know, i think the indication from coty is interesting in terms of putting together a couple of pieces of cosmetics business. >> great to have you on the show. thanks so much. bmo capital markets. how does this play out. >> i think it gets taken out but they get taken out much higher. average multiple is usually 10.2. this was only about 8.6 times. >> next up on halftime report, weak data over night out of europe. a currency trade could put you in the money when we come back on the halftime report. [ male announcer ] it's simple physics...
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♪ coming up next on "power lunch," two power players weigh in on how the second quarter playbook will look. stocks, bonds and europe. what should you be thinking about? what a trip it was. find out why one analyst is so bullish on the travel industry and where he says there is significant money yet to be made. it's all at the top of the hour. now back to scott and more of
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"fast money." back to you guys. >> thank you so much. take a look at intel. quietly becoming the hottest tech stock not named apple or priceline. up or priceline for that matter, it's up 29% in six months. 17% year-to-date and hitting a six-year high today. quick comment. >> love the stock. i love he was willing to step out and address this intermediation that i believe is going to happen between the content providers and me and you, the people that consume the content. so i think intel is still a great pick. >> treasury yields are down ism data shows u.s. manufacturing sector has improved. so how should you trade the u.s. momentum? let's get your realtime trade now from cnbc contributor jim on the fast line. worst quarter since 2010, what's your trade? >> i still think that continues. i don't know why they're doing so well today. so what i did today is increase my longs in tbt which gives you short exposure to the long end of the yield curve. decent ism data today,
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everything else looks like risk-on. i'm confused by why people are going but if 10-years go below 2.10 again and seem comfortable, i'll get out of the trade. right now the yield's going higher and the curve's going to steepen. >> i have played the tbt for the second half of march. i got out last week. you and i have talked about that. i agree with jimmy. i think you're going to see a rise in the 10-year yield. the reasoning why today yields are moving lower i think it's confusing to all of us, but it's indicative you won't be in the trade. wednesday is the biggest day this week. adt out and fomc minutes. >> but what's going to happen here is you're going to be able to really trade off of what you get on wednesday in the form of adp and the minutes. >> jimmy, have to run. good to have you always. time for money in motion now with todd gordon. he's taking a look at a play on
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the norwegian krone. let's trade. >> that's exactly it. we want to play this risk-on stock rally. we have a huge pmi all the way around the world. if you want to be long stocks, be long norwegian krone. if you want to go short, go current levels 5.6780, stop out around 575, take profit 550. >> give me your take the data overnight from china puts things like the aussie-dollar in play. what would your outlook be for that and how would you trade that? >> it's interesting. i would not personally trade aussie. it's been the laggard because of a fear of a chinese hard landing. but the data on saturday night started to put a little bit of a floor on the australian dollar. i used it more as a confirming signal to signal risk-on in the market. >> good to see you as always. next on the "halftime report," we'll trade some of your tweets when we come back.
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welcome back to the halftime show. let's get to some of your tweets now as we hit twicker. coal industry has been beaten up, but -- but, so has nat gas. just waiting on the prompter to catch up with me. joe. >> well, regulatory concerns surrounding the entire industry. i'm not a big fan of coal, however, if you can get coal in a diversified fashion by owning tech resources -- i mentioned
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that before, tck, like that, consol energy another name i like in the space. >> dana asks most home building stocks are down today. is there a rotation out of lennar, home depot, et cetera into other sectors, doc? >> there sure could be. i couldn't give her the answer as far as which sectors they might be rotating into and out of these. i don't see the volumes that justify saying though that they are rotating out because normally you see 2x or 3x when you have that kind of rotation. they're a little soft today. so what would i do? i would be selling on or buying dhi against them. 4kgt-ìc, trades when we come
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around the horn we go. patty edwards, kick us off. >> phillip morris international. go long. >> mike murphy. >> hertz. higher margin business. stock goes higher. >> dr.

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